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Production Planning

 Production Planning Essay

PRODUCTION ORGANIZING TERM PROJECT

Course Lecturer:

Prof. Dr . Selim Zaim

Öğr. Gör. Dr . Hüseyin Selçuk Kılıç

Project Members:

Elif Duygu Bağatırlar 150308045

Merve Ağaoğlu 150308026

İbrahim Ahıskalı 150308006

QUERY 1

2. Moving Normal Method

| | MA(2)| MA(3)| MA(4)| MA(5)| MA(6)| MA(2)| MA(3)| MA(4)| MA(5)| Month| Demand| one-step ahead| one-step ahead| one-step ahead| one-step ahead| one-step ahead| two step ahead| two stage ahead| two step ahead| two step ahead| July| 125| 102, 5| 113, 3333| 122, 5| 127| 125, 8333| 117, 5| 128, 3333| 132, 5| 130| August| 150| 115| 110| 116, 25| 123| 126, 6667| 102, 5| 113, 3333| 122, 5| 127| September| 175| 137, 5| 126, 6667| 120| 123| 127, 5| 115| 110| 116, 25| 123| October| 120| 162, 5| 150| 138, 75| 131| 131, 6667| 137, 5| 126, 6667| 120| 123| November| 145| 147, 5| 148, 3333| 142, 5| 135| 129, 1667| 162, 5| 150| 138, 75| 131| December| 90| 132, 5| 146, 6667| 147, 5| 143| 136, 6667| 147, 5| 148, 3333| 142, 5| 135

Month| Demand| Error| Error| Error| Error| Error| Error| Error| Error| Error| July| 125| twenty two, 5| 10, 66667| a couple of, 5| 2| 0, 833333| 7, 5| 3, 333333| 7, 5| 5| August| 150| 35| 40| thirty-three, 75| 27| 23, 33333| 47, 5| 36, 66667| 27, 5| 23| September| 175| thirty seven, 5| forty eight, 33333| 55| 52| 47, 5| 60| 65| 58, 75| 52| October| 120| 42, 5| 30| 18, 75| 11| 11, 66667| 17, 5| 6, 666667| 0| 3| November| 145| 2, 5| 3, 333333| 2, 5| 10| 12-15, 83333| seventeen, 5| 5| 6, 25| 14| December| 90| 42, 5| 56, 66667| 57, 5| 53| 46, 66667| 57, 5| 58, 33333| 52, 5| 45| | MAD| 30, 41667| 31, 66667| twenty-eight, 33333| 25, 83333| twenty-four, 30556| thirty four, 58333| 29, 16667| twenty-five, 41667| 23, 66667

Month| Demand| e^2| e^2| e^2| e^2| e^2| e^2| e^2| e^2| e^2| July| 125| 506, 25| 136, 1111| 6, 25| 4| 0, 694444| 56, 25| 11, 11111| 56, 25| 25| August| 150| 1225| 1600| 1139, 063| 729| 544, 4444| 2256, 25| 1344, 444| 756, 25| 529| September| 175| 1406, 25| 2336, 111| 3025| 2704| 2256, 25| 3600| 4225| 3451, 563| 2704| October| 120| 1806, 25| 900| 351, 5625| 121| 136, 1111| 306, 25| 44, 44444| 0| 9| November| 145| 6, 25| 11, 11111| 6, 25| 100| two hundred fifity, 6944| 306, 25| 25| 39, 0625| 196| December| 90| 1806, 25| 3211, 111| 3306, 25| 2809| 2177, 778| 3306, 25| 3402, 778| 2756, 25| 2025| | MSE| 1126, 042| 1365, 741| 1305, 729| 1077, 833| 894, 3287| 1638, 542| 1508, 796| 1176, 563| 914, 6667

Month| Demand| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| Iei/DiI| July| 125| zero, 18| zero, 093333| zero, 02| zero, 016| 0, 006667| 0, 06| 0, 026667| 0, 06| 0, 04| August| 150| zero, 233333| zero, 266667| zero, 225| 0, 18| 0, 155556| zero, 316667| 0, 244444| 0, 183333| 0, 153333| September| 175| zero, 214286| zero, 27619| 0, 314286| zero, 297143| zero, 271429| zero, 342857| zero, 371429| zero, 335714| 0, 297143| October| 120| zero, 354167| 0, 25| 0, 15625| 0, 091667| zero, 097222| 0, 145833| zero, 055556| 0| 0, 025| November| 145| 0, 017241| 0, 022989| 0, 017241| 0, 068966| 0, 109195| 0, 12069| 0, 034483| 0, 043103| 0, 096552| December| 90| 0, 472222| 0, 62963| 0, 638889| 0, 588889| 0, 518519| 0, 638889| 0, 648148| 0, 583333| 0, 5| | MAPE| 24, 52082| 25, 64681| 22, 8611| 20, 71107| 19, 30978| 27, 08226| 23, 0121| 20, 09141| 18, 5338

* Best solutions in the " Moving Avarage Method” will be a) five-month moving avarage, two-step ahead forecast technique with the most compact MAD and MAPE principles. b) six-month moving avarege, one-step in advance forecast technique with the most compact MSE benefit. a) b) Month| Forecast| |

7| 130| |

8| 127| |

9| 123| |

10| 123| |

11| 131| |

12| 135| |

| | MAD| twenty three, 66667

| | MSE| 914, 667

| | MAPE| 18, 538

Month| Forecast| |

7| 130| |...

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